Monday, May 28, 2012

The fate of the Euro weeks away - June 17th Greek elections

Radical Left vs The New Democracy:

Of course one might say the fate of Greece; but if Greece leaves the Euro-zone it could lead to a domino effect, which ultimately could crash the union.

New Election Polls show the SYRIZA is losing ground to the New Democracy. The SYRIZA are a radical left and Anti-Austerity party vs the conservative and pro-austerity (ND) New Democracy party.

Greek surveys suggested conservatives could form a coalition government with socialist PASOK, which have also pledged to stick to Greece's austerity commitments.

Because of austerity the previous May 6 elections proved inconclusive. With none of the parties able to form a coalition government - another ballot was scheduled for June.

Levant Partners (a Greek fund manager) predicts a 70% chance of a Euro exit if Syriza comes first in the elections. Support for Greece will stop if the Greek government does not accept the unpopular and harse austerity measures.

Basically there are 3 parties in the race: The New Democracy, The SYRIZA, and The PASOK. The only leading anti-austerity party is The SYRIZA; the race is neck and neck between pro-Austerity parties and the anti-austerity SYRIZA.

Poll conducted by ALCO for newspaper PROTO THEMA:
ND 25.6% – SYRIZA 22.9% – PASOK 14% – INDEPENDENT GREEKS 6.4% – KKE 5.6% – CHRYSI AVGI 4.6% -DEMOCRATIC LEFT 4.6%

Neal Vanderstelt - Currency Analyst
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