THE US IS IN A DEPRESSION, NOT A RECOVERY, NOT A RECESSION!

Why is it Americans can't say the word "Depression"?  Here's a reality trigger to wake you up!  A good percentage of people are on food stamps --- known as the EBT Card which is the modern-day food line.  In 1969, the average participation in the SNAP program stood at 2,878,000. In 2014, average participation grew to 46,536,000 showing an increase of 1516.96 percent.  ruffly 20% of the population is on food stamps.  

source:  Food Stamp Beneficiaries Exceed 46,000,000 for 38 Straight Months

Democrats keep saying how great the US is doing and how it has recovered under the most socialistic president in US history..  All we have to do is look at the real unemployment figures to understand this is no recovery nor is it a recession - the unemployment is depressionary.   the economy descended from essentially full employment in 1929 when the unemployment rate was 3.2 percent into massive unemployment in 1933 when the unemployment rate reached 25 percent.

This graph shows the real unemployment in 2015 which is ruffly 23-25% - prior to 1994 this was how unemployment was calculated and included people that gave up looking for work because of the economy so it is not "alternative" it is how unemployment is supposed to be calculated but a Democrat named Bill Clinton changed all that...   The unemployment being reported is actually 4 to 5 times worse which is a pretty substantial difference.. Meanwhile... Obama and his supporters are claiming how Obama fixed the economy and put people back to work - the truth is minus 180 degrees opposite of that statement.  The Real Unemployment is similar to the Great Depression!  Are you awake yet?  For black people in the US their unemployment is at 3rd world levels.. Do you still support Obama?  God save us!  

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references:

The real unemployment rate. 1930 contrasted with the Obama way of 2011

EUR/USD Parity - Euro may end up at parity or lower vs US Dollar

price on steady decline after Eurozone style QE - negative rates and pessimistic views by Eurozone policy makers over inflationary concerns and the need to artificially stimulate to boost the struggling EU economy.  short-term bounce is not out of the question.

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About Myself

I'm Neal Vanderstelt, a currency analyst, and self taught economist.  Back in 2005, I went around telling people that we are heading for the next great depression, and that soon the markets (globally, but especially the US) would collapse, unemployment would soar, and the price of gold would skyrocket..  

I've read many books on economics, studied past markets, studied many theories, and followed many economist to develop my own theories and philosophy on the markets.

Nobody took me seriously, it was a ragging bull market; and after the bubble popped, those same people won't even talk to me.  I had a friend that once owned a business on the NYSE, it had to do with Real Estate investment, and he asked me back in 05' why I thought the market would collapse because he had big investments on the line....  He looked at me with great concern because something i had said really bothered him so he came back and asked me.

I said the simple fact is history repeats itself in cycles - especially when we recreate the same conditions - the outcome is always the same.   The US currently has a negative savings rate and the market is over-leveraged - it is only a matter of time before the big investors pull the plug and the markets will crash.  At the time i did not have the money to invest but had i invested in gold like i wanted to i would be a very rich man today but nobody would back me..  Today, I have other investment ideas, but i still lack major funding required to make big money.

Another friend, who was a top guy for a major transportation company, told me how gold would never go over 500 and he knew because he and his father used to trade gold and i didn't know what i was talking about.  I was telling him about the coming collapse and now is the time to buy..  it gradually went over 500 even before the crash occurred because the really big investors knew and within only a few years gold skyrocketed and since then went many times over 500 level which would have made me very rich but i was unable to lock an investor that was willing to share the profits with me.  Even a small move in gold makes big money because in trading you don't trade actual gold you buy contracts and a small move is a big gain or loss.. That is why you need a lot of money to cushion the losses because not every entry is going to yield big money because of the way the market fluctuates.  But if you want to make money you got to have the money required to do it and i'm the person you want managing the money.  I rely not only on my fundamental knowledge but i have a complex understanding of how to read the charts.


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Why the Youth of America Acts So Poorly

The older generations that had it good can't understand why the youth is so pissy.. Well let me tell you.. you lived good when your buying power meant something but with each new generation your debt is passed on to them and they have to pay for you and what you left behind in debts. If you made 20 bucks an hour today you would still be in debt. that simply is not enough to live off of (buy a house, car, education to get higher pay, life expenses, retirement, health problems, pay for taxes - it's not enough!) and the older generations can't seem to get that through their skulls.

pre-1970 people had it good. and here's why. You had an American Dream - the youth today has to pay for past generations American Dream!
see chart:

So when your grandfather or even parents claim how hard they had to work for some seemingly small amount of money --- you can let them know the value of their dollars vs what your dollar is worth today was not worth the same amount.  they made many times more than what that numerical figure represented.   1 dollar in 1950 was not that same as 1 dollar in 2015.  No where nears! AT SOME POINT YOU HAVE TO SIT THEM DOWN AND EXPLAIN TO THEM CHILD TO ADULT!  THE PAST WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN NOW!  

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US Debt, Corruption, and The Medical Industry

A country that is corrupt can be defined by how it spends it's money.  Take a look at this debt clock for the US..  The US has more debt than assets and a good portion of this goes to the fraudulent medical industry.  Most countries allow alternative treatments - but not the US.

see link:
the debt clock.org

The debt clock proves the medical industry is fraudulent and greedy and US politicians are in bed with them.  Most of the unfunded liabilities go to the corrupt and greedy medical industry - it is the key reason why the US has more debt than assets.  Take a look at the prescription drug debt.. no prescription drug is known to cure a disease yet that's what doctors push to help you with your health conditions.  All of them have side effects and when they put you one drug you not only become a slave to that drug you'll have to take others for the new conditions / side effects! the prescription drug debt alone is greater than The National Debt (the debt the government pays itself and is controlled by a "debt ceiling" which is always violated! without a debt cieling the money doesn't even exist it is artificially created because the US is bankrupt but continues to spend and weaken your buying power for necessities) what a sham!

and if you think your paying for the latest technology to cure a disease think again!  many of the drugs are experimental and have no proven track record - the treatment for cancer is the same as it was in the 1940's - radiate / kill every cell in the body and people that have no treatment have ruffly the same survival rates,  They are counting on your desperation when you are ill and  your ignorance to believe they are trying to help us.

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WW-III Russia's Putin ASSASSINATEs Main Political Opponent while Russia and China try to Collapse US Financially

This blog post is under edit!

People claim the US tried to collapse Russia with sanctions.  If you further analyze this situation something silently happened that people were not paying attention to prior to these sanctions.  Back in February of 2014, Russia and China began their a attempt to crash the US economy by dumping US Treasury holdings, that they possessed to float US debt - in a once "friendly" relationship.

But a wildcard event happened, a shadow account out of Belgium began buying these notes and if it hadn't been for that it would have very likely kicked off W-III do to the turmoil this would have caused.

It wasn't the Belgium government that bought US treasuries because this unknown Belgium buyer bought more than Belgium itself could afford within its government buying power.  Belgium is a relatively small country yet some big buying has occurred through its financial portals.  Belgium US Treasury Holdings skyrocket out of nowhere (see chart):






*if you study the Belgium purchase (click chart to enlarge!) this attempted collapse of US Treasuries started back in December of 2013 and ramped up by the Ukrainian crisis.

Meanwhile, Russia has increased its gold holdings to hedge itself against currency collapse. Putin knew full-well the consequences of invading Crimea and protected Russia financially while at the same time trying to stab a dagger through the heart of the US financially with help from China.

After China and Russia dumped US Treasuries Russia went in on the ground and seized Crimea.  Which was technically already occupied and had little resistance but this was obviously a very violent move by Russia and China.   The military move left Ukraine, Crimea (under Russian control) officially divided.

330 feet from the Kremlin, Boris Nemtsov was walking with his girlfriend and shot several times in the back and murdered.   It is obviously an assassination because he was a major political Putin adversary.  With Putin being an x-KGB officer this is just all to coincidental to not be an assassination staged by Putin. Nemtsov was the biggest threat to Putin politically.  He was pro Ukraine and an openly outspoken harsh critic of Putin.   At the time of his assassination he was organizing a pro-Ukraine rally in Moscow which would have been very damaging to Putin politically because it was to not only speak about Ukraine but how Putin was damaging Russia financially.

Nemtsov also spoke about the corruption that took place in the Russian Olympics and that millions of dollars were missing that likely went into the pockets of Russian politicians such as Putin who is one of the wealthiest people on Earth - not bad for a former KGB person - but nobody questioned how he obtained this wealth.   Russia is on the top of the list for most corrupt countries on the planet and ruffly 50% of the money in Russian banks is owned and controlled by the Russian mafia.  Legitimate business people have to pay the mafia to do legitimate business in Russia.  

To add more suspicion to the case - Putin led investigation leads to suspects who are Chechen.. The guy is about to give an Anti-Putin speech and unavailing financial corruption is supposedly killed by Chechen's who are physically dragged into court like animals to give a confession.   So much for proof and a fail trial.  Now they are saying 1 suspect conveniently blew himself up while the other has confessed.  

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credits:
Russia Tightens Grip On Crimea; US Threatens Sanctions Over Ukraine Crisis
As Russia Dumps A Record Amount Of US Treasury
Boris Nemtsov - wikipedia

Are Currency Wars A New Thing?

if you google "currency wars" it is not a new thing per say. It has gone on before but they are
getting more desperate since they expected the economy to recover
(they say it has but we all know it hasn't).  

In the United States the Democrats are fighting a Republican Congress over the economy.   In
Europe the Germans are fighting with the Greeks, the French, and other
European countries about the policies of the Euro.  And in Japan they want very
artificially low rates that are not practical.  Japan was lightly touched on in the G7 meeting and will be
the main focus for the G20 meeting in Moscow this weekend.   

Whenever they have these meetings (any bank meeting) it causes confusion in the markets - they just had a G7
meeting the other day and prior to that there was a bunch of other bank meetings by the US, Australia, and Europe.  So they are almost all done.  Anyone that tries to trade when things are like this
usually gets their head cut off so I'm waiting until this is done with.   It's impossible to pick the correct direction when they are bickering unless you are lucky and luck has to do with gambling - only
stupid traders gamble.  

The US has agreed that it will keep it's rates artificially low until unemployment drops to 6% (I think it's 7.8%)..
Gold will probably go up this year and the next..  The housing market
is likely a fake recovery too because the current buyers are
institutional investors and not 1st time buyers.  The institutions are
buying them not to make money from the price of the real estate but to
rent them out so it is not a real recovery at this point and if the economy doesn't get on track there will likely
be another real estate crach.  1st time buyers have a tough time qualifying for homes
and right now the savings rate is very low because as you know not
only is the economy bad but savers or punished by the banks.  

With a record number of people living below the poverty line - it's not realistic to expect another boom in real estate anytime soon.  

Even if you by treasury bonds with a 3% return it doesn't account for
inflation which makes it a losing return on the investment because of
the federal reserves banking policies that are causing purchasing
power to erode.  Right now the stock market is going up because the
big investors have temporarily moved into stocks because bonds are not attractive.

There is a lot of talk about a bond bubble and a lot of people that
say not to worry - when they say not to worry that's when you worry
.
Since Nixon removed the gold standard the price of gold has gone up
40x (that not 40% but 40 times --- 3900% if my math is correct).  It's likely gold will
continue to go up in the future since the US continues to borrow to
support the economy and pay for wars.  I don't see this trend
reversing anytime soon unless the economy can somehow recover but
rather than recover it will probably reach a point where it breaks -
that is why some economist are saying gold will go to 3000 or more and
gas price to $8 bucks or more there's a good chance prices will go up soon especially
with price per barrel nearing $100.).  

It's not a time / scenario  for long term investors to breath easy and sit back in their easy chair - you have
to be on top of every occurrence - if unemployment and the debt situation doesn't change overseas investors  that are holding up the US economy will continue to lose confidence in the US (they are already upset) and continue to invest outside the US - that only means one thing ---- a great
collapse.

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Unfunded liabilities hit $122 trillion - as U.S. debt, deficit grow

Posted: January 24, 2013 - 4:22pm

Now that the coronation of President Barack Obama is over and the nation returns to the poorly scripted soap opera being played out on Capitol Hill, the harsh realities of our nation’s financial crisis is center stage.
Everyone seems to be aware that our national debt is $16.4 trillion. Our current budget deficit — what the government takes in versus what it spends — is $1.06 trillion. In fact our nation’s revenue is $2.48 trillion. Not bad. However, the government of the United States is spending $3.54 trillion a year. That’s bad. Hence, the deficit spending of $1.06 trillion.
That’s not a good thing. Why? Well, when one examines the nation’s fiscal problems more carefully, one discovers that we have an unfunded liabilities total of $122.4 trillion. So, if one was thinking that all we have to focus on is the annual deficit and the total debt, one should realign one’s thinking. My question — how does one wrap one’s mind around $122 trillion when the nation’s total national assets — small business, corporations and households across this nation — only total $93 trillion?
Why is all of this important to the discussion? It frames the total picture of our government as excessive and well beyond what we can afford. It should no longer be swept aside when the negotiations between the White House, Senate and House commence. This is serious. This is what could ultimately bring this nation to its knees.
Now, for some good news. As a citizen of the United States of America each taxpayer has a liability for this spending of only $1.1 million. So if you have an extra million laying around, send your share to the IRS and get that bill out of the way before April 15.
We must, as citizens of this nation, hold our elected officials responsible for this overwhelming problem. We have allowed them to rack up this indebtedness. It is now our responsibility to demand that they cut spending more than we bring in any given year. If we fail to follow through with this demand as individuals of our leaders, then we all fail the generations that will follow us.
Keith Hansen

 http://brainerddispatch.com/opinion/2013-01-24/unfunded-liabilities-hit-122-trillion-us-debt-deficit-grow

Grexit still a possibility

Protest have erupted in Greece over Austerity measures and have heightened after Chancellor Angela Merkel's vistit.   Merkel has been a long time critic of Greece and it's inability to meet it's fiscal targets.  She is very much hated in Greece.

 

Her visit was met with wide-scale massive protest that have in some cases turned violent with protesters pelting Greece police with homemade maltalv firebombs.

Protesters burned swastikas and chanted “Merkel, out of Greece!” Greek unions have also called for a 24 hr strike.
 

Greece is plagued with Wiemar Republic like unemployment.   

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FOMC signals QE3

Quantitative Easing made the news on Wednesday as Bernanke decided that QE3 might be in the cards. Even though Bernanke is pushing for QE, not all FOMC members agree with it but many did agree with the notion. At this point however it could just be some fancy jawboning to stimulate the market so while it's in the card - it's not a sure thing.

The current Fed pledge is to keep rates at “exceptionally low levels” through at least late 2014 will not change and may extend further into 2015.

The jawboning by the FOMC did little to move the markets but there was a jolt against the USD and Gold made new short-term highs in anticipation of the move which will not occur until September (if it does).

Stay tuned!

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Perhaps the US is similar to the Roman Empire when it was about to collapse?

The United States currently is deployed in over 150 countries around the world according to wikipedia:

United States military deployments
Map of U.S. Military bases around the world
The current benchmark rate is 0.25 (nearly zero) and on top of the loose monetary policy there's additional manipulation in the form of Quantitative Easing - currently there has been 2 stages of QE (QE1 and QE2) and Operation Twist.

The Roman Empire (like the United States) had it's empire spread out all over the known world (Map of the Roman Empire).
Like the US the Roman Empire had a currency problem. The empire faced hyperinflation caused by years of coinage devaluation. The problem was so intense that the currency had very little value and a bartering system was often used making the ease of trade difficult. It wasn't long after Roman coins had virtually no value that the empire itself collapsed.

With a spread out military and a debased currency that is mocked by other countries is the US leading down the path of a total collapse?

Fed Continues Operation Twist
United States loses prized AAA credit rating from S&P

Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

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Max Keiser : European big banks technically insolvent

France, back in a recession for the 2nd time in 3 years. Italy's economy contracting point seven percent in the last quarter:

And for the powerhouse, Germany: its Industrial, construction and manufacturing all slumped for June: The euro- zone debt crisis continues to threaten the survival of the 17-nation currency bloc, affecting non-Eurozone members, like the UK, where the Bank of England said it did not expect the UK to grow out of a recession. But the more alarming picture: the lack of growth, whether its for each country, developing countries, or the global economy as a whole.

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Spain cut just 2 notches higher than junk status

Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating from A to BBB, with a negative outlook. The BBB credit rating is just two notches higher than junk status.

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Greece & Spain on the ropes, Operation Twist ends...

Extreme pressure on the Euro followed by extreme pressure on the global economy. After last week’s disappointing NFP, the FED(US) will look for dovish measures to stimulate the economy as operation twist (program to lengthen maturities of debt on the central bank's balance sheet) comes to an end this month. Operation twist could be extended according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart.

All eyes will be on FED Chairman Ben Bernanke with a policy-setting FOMC meeting June 19-20 to consider if more stimulus is needed after the economy added the fewest jobs in a year in May.

European economy is still in turmoil with struggling Greece and Spain highlighting the Euro's weakness. Meanwhile investors eye the key Greek election in June which will decide the flavor of the "new" Greek government.

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Bank Runs In Greece - so in the face - Even Fox News Reports it

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What is a Grexit and why? Bad English or......

Well it's not as bad as a Spexit lol. A Grexit *Gr-Exit* is a pun word for a Greek exit out of the Euro-zone. The Spexit *Sp-Exit* --- you guessed it!! Is a Spanish exit out of the Euro-zone. People got bored of talking about Greek exiting the euro-zone because it's meantioned so much that they made pun word out of it.

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The Euro-Zone Report: Technically The Euro in Downtrend since mid-2008

The Euro-Zone Report: Technically The Euro in Downtrend since mid-2008: While the Euro has been in trading news everyday over Greece and Spain - technically the Euro has been in a major down-trend since July 2008...

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Technically The Euro in Downtrend since mid-2008

While the Euro has been in trading news everyday over Eurozone countries like Greece or Spain - technically the Euro has been in a major down-trend since July 2008 when the EUR/USD made it's last poke higher - peaking at the 1.6000 level. The chances of the Euro going back above that level anytime soon are slim to none and the currency pair will stay below that peak for some time to come.

The weekly chart below clearly shows a strong long-term and medium-term downtrend:


If there was ever a "contrarian trade" now would be the time if the Euro is to recover because it would be very oversold if there's a case for recovery in June. However should the debt crisis lead to a member(s) to exit the Euro, it is quite possible the Euro could continue to slide, and it could slide to it's demise because there are many holes in the Eurozone economy.

One has to weigh several factors and consider:
1. just how much of an impact the weaker countries in the Euro have to the overall value of the Euro;
2. what it means to the stronger members if a weaker member defaults or continues to need bailouts (perhaps a default or two would be good because of the bailout burden but it would likely effect the exchange rate - the fear is a landslide collapse and domino effect from other eurozone countries that might decide to leave while the door is open);
3. the state of the global economy and the prospects of the Euro-zone being able to pull out of Europe's recessionary conditions in a weak global environment;
4. if the weaker members do not leave the Euro what it will mean to stronger members (primarily Germany, 2ndly France - the largest EU countries) who have to carry the smaller members weight by providing them "large" bailouts (the bailout problem is worse the longer the economy does not recover and should larger medium size members need bailouts (likely they will especially after it all tanks) it will be tougher bailing them out than bailing out a little country/economy like Greece - which has already made the Germans angry - when the bigger one's need the same type of stimulus the show could likely be over because they will need much more than Greece).

June seems to be a very critical month with risk assets (major equities in particular and commodities) gaining selling momentum which spurs concerns of a major collapse; combined with the turmoil in Greece, trouble in Spanish bond market (a banking sector saddled with toxic loans), weak US non-farm payrolls, weak US jobs market data, the Greek election in June, and the US FOMC meeting; it is a long list of things to consider that could either make or break the market this month.

Should it be that the data is at it's lowest point for the year and the FOMC pumps the market there could be a considerable bounce. But if the turmoil is too strong it could tip the risk markets for a deeper fall.

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The Euro-Zone Report: Euro in big trouble US markets crash

The Euro-Zone Report: Euro in big trouble US markets crash: US stock markets crashed as fear controlled the market over global economic concerns and weak domestic data. The market feel sharply after ...

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Euro in big trouble US markets crash

US stock markets crashed as fear controlled the market over global economic concerns and weak domestic data. The market feel sharply after weak jobs data hit the market but the market was already sliding/weak. It was the worst day in 6-months providing market contagion concerns.

Crude oil also came crashing down with equites but the gold commodity went opposite to oil suggesting there is a great amount of fear to currencies and the looming fed meeting which could signal more injections via quantitive easing speculations to prop the economy/stock market.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls and jobs data were the key concerns in US markets which turned out to have a negative influence on the market. The Labor Department said 69,000 jobs were created during May, the smallest increase in a year and well short of economists’ forecasts. The unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April, the first increase in 11 months. Analysts had expected U.S. non-farm payrolls to rise 150K last month. The data provided evidence that the economy is still deteriorating.

The drop in equities is particularly concerning in that it wipes out yearly gains.

Gold may be providing a safe haven to investors with uncertainty (if not out right fear) in the cash markets.

Unemployment in the euro zone has reached 11% in April and March, the highest since the data started in 1995.

The EUR/USD finished it's last hours of the trading week with a dramatic bounce during the US close from the 1.2280's but the 2010 June low (1.1870's) has yet to be tested. If the US props the market or Euro confidence is restored we might not see this low.

European sovereign debt crisis continued to be a shadow of every market fall with Greece and Spain on the forefront of EU woes to haunt the Euro lower - just when you think they are out of the news they come back in with more gloom.

Greece will elect a new government this month. Coupled with the FOMC meeting in the US it could lead to some very difficult and perhaps a turbulent month if issues are not resolved regarding European unity and the health of the US economy.

Crude oil ended the week down 8% coupled with weak global data out of US, China, and Europe falling in tandem.

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